Post-election capital expenditure (capex) has been weak at 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in M9FY25. The FY25 revised estimates (RE) indicate 7 per cent growth in FY25 against FY24, implying 21 per cent Y-o-Y growth in Q4FY25 government capex.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
India on Tuesday opened its largest oil and gas bid round, offering 25 blocks covering 1.91 lakh square kilometers mostly in offshore area, as the government looks to boost domestic production to cut imports and help energy security. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri launched the 10th bid round under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) at the India Energy Week (IEW) in Mumbai.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called for an examination of the 'entire gamut of taxes and subsidies on energy forms and devices'.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
Hero MotoCorp anticipates a big rebound in two-wheeler (2W) sales in rural India over the next four to eight quarters, driven by favourable factors such as a decent monsoon, rising crop prices, improved employment conditions, and increasing consumer confidence, its chief executive officer (CEO) Niranjan Gupta said on Wednesday. Amid tepid rural sales, he stated that there is a "strong case" for GST (goods and services tax) on entry-level two-wheelers, which are under 125 CC, to be moved down from 28 per cent to 18 per cent as they are used by "masses".
Billionaire Gautam Adani's group on Monday announced its exit from FMCG joint venture Adani Wilmar by selling its entire stake to the Singaporean partner and in the open market for an estimated over $2 billion in a first major deal since the US bribery indictment. In a statement, Adani Enterprises Ltd -- which held 43.94 per cent stake in Fortune brand cooking oil, wheat flour and other food product maker Adani Wilmar Ltd -- said it will sell 31.06 per cent stake to Wilmar International. About 13 per cent will be sold in the open market to meet minimum public shareholding requirements.
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
US investment banker JP Morgan has given 'overweight' rating on four Adani group bonds, comforted by ability to scale and grow using internal cash flows which reduces the scope for credit stress. In a report, JP Morgan gave 'overweight' rating on three bond issues of Adani Ports & SEZ and one by Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd (a subsidiary of Adani Energy Solutions Ltd). It has taken neutral stand on other five Adani bonds and is underweight on one bond issued by Adani Green Energy Ltd.
The increase by more than three per cent is largely due to jump in the rate of inflation in the case of WPI for fuel, power, light and lubricants
Fundraising by Indian corporates through equity and debt reached all-time high in the calendar year 2024, according to primedatabase.com. The overall public equity fundraising stood at Rs 3.7 trillion in 2024, a rise of 159 per cent from Rs 1.4 trillion in 2023. If Rights Issues of Rs 25,973 crore were to be added, the overall equity fundraising would touch nearly Rs 4 trillion in 2024.
Russia's state-owned oil firm Rosneft has agreed to supply up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Indian upstream oil and gas major Reliance Industries (RIL) in the largest-ever energy deal between the two countries, Reuters reported on Thursday. The 10-year agreement amounts to 0.5 per cent of global oil supply and is valued at roughly $13 billion per year at current prices, it said.
With nearly 100 launches and unveils, the Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025, held in Delhi from January 17 to 22, made one thing clear to automobile enthusiasts: Electric vehicles (EVs) are the way ahead for the Indian auto market for years to come.
The two-wheeler giant had only 14 per cent of the electric two-wheeler market in May this year, but its 26.8 per cent in December
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
'Price competition is fierce, with many companies selling at zero margin.' 'This pricing pressure is challenging smaller companies and will likely drive some out of the market over time.'
Once declared a dud stock, Suzlon has generated stellar returns for investors thus far this calendar year. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Suzlon's share price has doubled investor wealth by soaring 109.35 per cent on the bourses. By comparison, the benchmark BSE Sensex has gained just 11.2 per cent.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
India's top oil and gas producer ONGC on Friday reported a tripling of net profit in the June quarter as it earned record prices before the government slapped a tax on windfall profits arising from a global rally in energy rates. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) standalone net profit at Rs 15,205.85 crore, or Rs 12.09 per share, in April-June, compared to Rs 4,334.75 crore, or Rs 3.45 a share, in the same period a year back, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. Sequentially, the profit was higher than the Rs 8,859.54 crore net profit of January-March.
Most global as well as domestic brokerages are upbeat on India's largest IT services provider, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), despite its performance during the December quarter of FY25, when it missed Street estimates. On the bourses, the TCS share price rallied as much as 6.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 4,296.80 apiece, before settling 5.67 per cent higher at Rs 4,265.55.
The Cyberster is currently sold in the UK for about Rs 63 lakh and is expected to be priced between Rs 65 lakh and Rs 70 lakhs.
With India's gig economy projected to double in size, reaching over 10 million workers in the coming years, Ola Electric unveiled its new line of budget-friendly e-scooters, starting at under Rs 40,000. The market responded positively, with Ola Electric's stock rising by 5.67 per cent, closing at Rs 73.47 on the BSE.
Prices of natural gas, which is used to generate electricity, make fertiliser and is converted into CNG to run automobiles, is likely to rise to record levels at the rate review scheduled this week, sources said. The government-dictated price for natural gas produced in the country is to be revised on October 1. After factoring in the spike in energy prices witnessed in recent months, the rate paid for gas produced from old fields such as of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is likely to rise to $9 per million British thermal units from current $6.1.
'If you compare the data from 2017 and 2023 of the US imports from the world and China, you will see that the US was a complete loser in the trade war, and China was a complete gainer.'
About 99,165 electric cars were sold in India in 2024, but electric car penetration -- share of electric car sales in total sales -- was just about 2.5 per cent.
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
'Trump administration wanted a positive tone at this summit, but there was still some anxiety that there could be some awkward moments -- and there were not.'
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
The IPO market is set to be bustling next week, with 11 companies like Vishal Mega Mart, TPG Capital-backed Sai Life Sciences and fintech firm One Mobikwik Systems gearing up to launch their initial share sales, collectively aiming to raise nearly Rs 18,500 crore. Other mainboard IPOs to be launched during this period are Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Ltd and Blackstone-owned diamond grading firm International Gemmological Institute (India) Ltd.
"Less than two week back, we faced a set of allegations from the US about compliance practices. This is not the first time we have faced such challenges. What I can tell you is that every attack makes us stronger," he said addressing the 51st Gems and Jewellery Award in Jaipur.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
'No one manufactures intelligence at the moment.' 'This is a concept that your IT industry understands.' 'What you need is infrastructure. Everything else can then be taken care of.'
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, Moody's Ratings said, forecasting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in the 2024 calendar year and 6.6 per cent in the next. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening.
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